Sweden faces lowest risk of disruption

By Sandy Guthrie10 December 2014

Sweden currently has the lowest risk of disruption to construction projects, according to the latest research from Timetric, although risks in Hong Kong and Brazil were found to be rising.

Sweden remains at the top of the rankings in the fourth quarter 2014 update of the Construction Risk Index (CRI) from Timetric, ahead of Singapore and Switzerland, which have switched places owing to a slight increase in market risk in Switzerland.

Danny Richards, analyst at Timetric, said of the Swedish market, “Public and private investment across all the sectors continues to provide support to construction activity growth.

“The Swedish government aims to develop the country's infrastructure and transport network, with a wide range of construction projects in the pipeline. Moreover, rising demand for residential buildings will also support construction growth from 2015 and onwards.”

Timetric’s research showed that Greece performed well in the quarterly update, with the country’s economy finally starting to grow again and confidence rising. However, it warned that the country was improving from a very low base, with major challenges remaining ahead, particularly given the country’s high levels of unemployment and public debt.

The UK has risen to 10th place, with the latest data pointing to further improvements in output and confidence levels.

The latest developments across all countries covered in the CRI suggest that risk in general was picking up, with a total of 27 countries recording a worsening in their risk profile in the quarterly update.

As an example, it reported that Brazil remained in a troubled state, with a major corruption scandal surrounding Petrobas, the part state-owned energy corporation, as well as high inflation and slowing economic growth.

Hong Kong’s risk score has also continued to deteriorate.

Richards said, “Recent protests on the city state’s streets against China’s control over election candidates have increased general political risk. However, Hong Kong is still ranked in 7th place with a low possibility of project disruption.”

The CRI, which is updated on a quarterly basis, is said to provide an analysis of current conditions and a forward-looking assessment of general and specific risks that could prevent projects from being executed, result in major disruptions to projects, or ultimately lead to project failures. The CRI is based on five dimensions of risk, each with varying weights – market risk, operating risk, economic risk, financial risk, and political risk.

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